Conference "War in Ukraine: what consequences for Russia in Asia?", Wednesday, April 20

Registration required for face-to-face or remote participation in the conference.

Launched on February 24, it was conceived as a blitzkrieg. Clearly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not go according to Moscow's plan: the Russian army not only came up against fierce Ukrainian resistance coupled with supply and logistical problems, but also an unprecedented regime of economic sanctions decided by the West. Today, Russia no longer seems certain of conquering Ukraine. Could this cause its influence to waver outside Europe, particularly in Asia?

Since the mid-2000s and even more vigorously since 2014 - the year of the annexation of Crimea and the first Western sanctions - Vladimir Putin has been seeking to develop the Russian Federation's presence in Asia-Pacific. The aim is to build up ever greater strategic depth, so as to be able to stand up to the United States and rediscover the grandeur of the Russian empire. But are developments in the war in Ukraine threatening to undermine Vladimir Putin's Asian grand design?

Example: relations between Tokyo and Moscow became strained as soon as the Russian army entered Ukrainian territory. The immediate result: negotiations for a peace treaty between the two countries and for the return to Japan of the four Kuril islands occupied by Russia in 1945 were interrupted. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has aligned himself with US sanctions and has not hesitated to condemn the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine. Yet these islands, of symbolic importance to Tokyo, are of great strategic interest to Russia in the Asia-Pacific zone.

Another example in Central Asia, in the former socialist republics. Initially very vague to avoid angering its big Russian neighbor, Kazakhstan then distanced itself from Putin's war in Ukraine, for fear of being next on the list. What's more, Uzbekistan has not hesitated to criticize the Russian invasion.

But is Russia's position in Asia threatened with decline? Not yet, if India's attitude is anything to go by. Dependent on Russian arms sales, New Delhi, despite its links with the United States via the Quad security forum, has decided not to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, like China. What does this mean?

This conference is the first in a series of two debates on the impact of the war in Ukraine on Asia. Before discussing this crisis from China's perspective on May 18, on April 20 we'll look at Russia's relations with Central Asia, India and Japan.

Speakers:

• Céline Pajon, researcher, head of Japan activities at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
• Jean-Luc Racine, researcher, specialist in India and the geopolitics of South Asia, director of research emeritus at the CNRS and associate researcher at Asia Centre.
• Didier Chaudet, specialist in post-Soviet Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, associate researcher at the Institut Français d'Etudes sur l'Asie Centrale (IFEAC) and publication director of CAPE.
  

Moderator:

• Cyrielle Cabot, journalist with Asialyst and France 24.
  

Co-organizers: Inalco and Asialyst.com, the website for information and analysis on the whole of Asia
Contact: contact@asialyst.com