EAWU - Europe And the War in Ukraine

This project aims to analyze the consequences of the war in Ukraine since 2022 for Europe in geopolitical, geoeconomic and commercial terms. The research focuses on three main areas: the evolution of the European Union's relations with Eastern European countries, the prospects for European defense and security, and the impact of the sanctions policy towards Russia.

Research team and scientific coordination: Laure Delcour (Sorbonne Nouvelle), Maxime Lefebvre (ESCP) and Julien Vercueil (Inalco).

This project is divided into three seminars organized in 2025 by the participating partner institutions.

Future relations between the EU and Eastern Europe

Seminar organized by Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, Maison de la Recherche, rue des Irlandais, April 30, 2025.

Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine has profoundly reshaped the European Union's relations with Eastern European countries, creating a new dynamic of exclusion - vis-à-vis Russia and Belarus - and inclusion - with other countries in the region. The opening up of EU membership prospects for the three associated countries - Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia - is a major turning point, marking a clear break with the lack of a clear end goal under the European Neighborhood Policy.
However, relations between the EU and the countries of Eastern Europe are neither monolithic, linear nor univocal. They face multiple political and security challenges, linked to national, European and international contexts.

The aim of this seminar was to reflect on possible future relations between the EU and Eastern Europe in the light of these challenges. It took the form of thematic round tables, structured around an introductory presentation and exchanges between participants. The speakers then wrote up their contributions in the form of a policy paper. Their papers can be downloaded below.

European defence and security

Seminar organized by ESCP Business School, avenue de la Porte de Champerret, July 4, 2025.

Russia's aggression against Ukraine and Donald Trump's re-election to the US presidency have given new impetus to the prospects of a European defense. As recently as 2016, the European Council affirmed that Europeans must assume greater responsibility for security. Europe has significantly increased its defense spending, it is developing common financing tools, it has helped Ukraine militarily, it is considering providing security guarantees to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire, and a debate on a possible European nuclear deterrent has taken shape.

This seminar aimed to explore the challenges for European security and the potential for a more autonomous European defense. It took the form of thematic round tables, structured around introductory presentations and exchanges between participants. The speakers then wrote up their contributions in the form of a policy paper. Their papers can be downloaded below.

Europe, Russia and Western Sanctions

Seminar organized by Inalco, Maison de la Recherche, rue de Lille, October 10, 2025.

Much has been said and written about the 18 sets of sanctions envisaged by the European Union to counter Russia's aggression against Ukraine. However, assessments are often contradictory: some analysts consider that they have had no significant effect, provoking on the contrary two unforeseen consequences: pushing Russia into the arms of China and accelerating the establishment of import-substitution industries. For others, despite Russia's ability, with the help of its strategic partners, to partially circumvent certain sanctions, they have served to steadily weaken the very foundations of Russia's ability to maintain or modernize its conventional military capabilities over the long term, depriving its industrial base of much-needed capital and technology flows and compounding the damaging effects of the war economy itself, which has diverted resources from the civilian to the military sector.

This seminar aimed to explore and deepen this debate, helping to assess the EU's ability to weaken, through its action, Russia's means of aggression. It took the form of three thematic round tables, each structured around three introductory presentations, followed by exchanges between participants. The speakers then wrote up their contributions in the form of a policy paper. Their papers can be downloaded below.